Executive Summary

Q3 2025 beat on the top and bottom line: Revenue $880.1M vs $837.4M consensus*; Diluted EPS $4.24 vs $3.25 consensus*. EBITDA also exceeded consensus, supported by disciplined China pricing despite a muted peak season .
Year-over-year declines reflect lower China freight rates and volume; domestic trades (Hawaii, Alaska) grew modestly. Ocean Transportation operating income fell to $147.4M from $226.9M YoY, while Logistics OI softened to $13.6M from $15.4M .
Guidance: Q4 2025 consolidated operating income expected ~30% below Q4 2024 ($147.5M), with ~$6.4M in port entry fees included to date, but management expects a more stable trading environment following the Oct 30 U.S.-China deal suspending port entry fees for one year .
Capital allocation remains shareholder-friendly: ~$66.4M of buybacks in Q3 (0.6M shares); dividend of $0.36/share declared for Q4 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Strong beat versus consensus: revenue $880.1M vs $837.4M*, EPS $4.24 vs $3.25*, and EBITDA outperformance vs $167.0M* as management held expedited China pricing despite a muted peak season .
- Domestic trades resilient: Hawaii FEUs +0.3% YoY; Alaska FEUs +4.1% YoY; SSAT JV contribution rose to $9.3M (vs $6.9M) on higher lift revenue .
- Management maintained pricing discipline: “we are trading at... some of the highest spreads over the market rates... our absolute freight rates are likely to come down, but in a very orderly way” (CEO) .
What Went Wrong
- China softness: FEUs -12.8% YoY and lower YoY freight rates; muted peak season as shippers pulled forward cargo ahead of tariff deadlines .
- Segment profit compression: Ocean Transportation OI fell to $147.4M (from $226.9M), Logistics OI to $13.6M (from $15.4M), on China volume/rates and weaker forwarding/brokerage .
- Cautious near-term outlook: Q4 2025 consolidated OI guided ~30% below Q4 2024, with customers still working through inventory and ~$6.4M of port entry fees paid quarter-to-date included in outlook .

Financial Results

Headline metrics and estimate context

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025 (Actual)	Q3 2025 (Consensus)*	Surprise (Actual – Cons.)
Revenue ($M)	$962.0	$830.5	$880.1	$837.4*	+$42.7
Diluted EPS ($)	$5.89	$2.92	$4.24	$3.25*	+$0.99
Operating Income ($M)	$242.3	$113.0	$161.0	N/A	N/A
EBITDA ($M)	$289.4	$163.6	$212.3	$167.0*	+$45.3

Notes: Consensus values marked with * are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment performance (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment	Revenue ($M)	Operating Income ($M)	Operating Margin
Ocean Transportation (Q3’25)	$718.3	$147.4	20.5%
Ocean Transportation (Q3’24)	$798.7	$226.9	28.4%
Logistics (Q3’25)	$161.8	$13.6	8.4%
Logistics (Q3’24)	$163.3	$15.4	9.4%

KPIs and volumes

KPI	Q3 2025	Q3 2024	YoY Change
Hawaii FEUs	36,300	36,200	+0.3 pts
Alaska FEUs	23,100	22,200	+4.1 pts
China FEUs	34,900	40,000	-12.8 pts
Guam FEUs	4,600	4,800	-4.2 pts
Other FEUs	4,600	4,700	-2.1 pts
SSAT JV contribution ($M)	9.3	6.9	+$2.4

Liquidity, cash flow, and capital allocation (selected)

Cash & Cash Equivalents: $92.7M at 9/30/25 (down from $266.8M at 12/31/24) .
Operating Cash Flow (9M 2025): $370.2M (vs $593.1M in 9M 2024; 2024 included $118.6M federal tax refund) .
Total Debt: $370.9M at 9/30/25; available RCF borrowings $544.0M .
Buybacks: ~0.6M shares for $66.4M in Q3 2025; ~1.9M shares remain on authorization .
Dividend: $0.36/share declared for Q4 2025 (payable Dec 4, 2025) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Consolidated Operating Income	Q4 2025	—	~30% below Q4 2024’s $147.5M	New item
Ocean Transportation OI	Q4 2025	—	Lower YoY; includes ~$6.4M port entry fees QTD	New item
Logistics OI	Q4 2025	—	Modestly lower than $10.1M in Q4 2024	New item
Depreciation & Amortization	FY 2025	~$200M incl. ~$26M dry-dock (Q2 PR)	~$196M incl. ~$28M dry-dock	Lower D&A; higher dry-dock amort.
Interest Income	FY 2025	~$31M (Q2 PR)	~$32M	Raised
Interest Expense	FY 2025	~$7M (Q2 PR)	~$7M	Maintained
Other Income (Expense)	FY 2025	~$9M income (Q2 PR)	~$9M income	Maintained
GAAP Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	~22.0% (Q2 PR)	~22.0%	Maintained
Maintenance/Other CapEx	FY 2025	~$100–$120M (Q2 PR)	~$130M	Raised
New Vessel Milestone Payments	FY 2025	~$305M (Q2 PR)	~$248M (deferred into 2026)	Lowered/shifted
Dry-docking Payments	FY 2025	~$40M (Q2 PR)	~$45M	Raised
Dividend	Q4 2025	$0.36/share (prior level set 6/26/25)	$0.36/share declared 10/23/25	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Tariffs / Port entry fees	Q2: Demand rebounded mid-May after temporary tariff reduction; uncertainty persists . Q1: April tariffs drove ~30% YoY volume drop in China; high uncertainty .	One-year suspension of port entry fees from Nov 10 under U.S.-China deal; ~$6.4M fees paid QTD not passed to customers; expecting more stable trading environment .	Improving visibility post 10/30 deal; fees suspended near-term .
China service volumes/rates	Q2: China FEUs -14.6% YoY; rates modestly higher YoY . Q1: Rates significantly higher YoY; FEUs -1.4% YoY .	Q3: FEUs -12.8% YoY; lower YoY rates; muted peak season due to pull-forward of cargo .	Softer Q3; cautious Q4 on inventories .
Pricing discipline	—	Maintained premium pricing; spreads over market at highs; seasonal normalization expected .	Firm pricing supports outperformance .
Domestic trades (HI/AK/Guam)	Q2: HI +2.6% FEUs; AK +0.9%; Guam -2.2% . Q1: HI +3.2%; AK +4.8%; Guam -14.3% .	Q3: HI +0.3%; AK +4.1%; Guam -4.2% .	HI/AK resilient; Guam softer .
SSAT JV	Q2: $7.3M vs $1.2M YoY; higher lifts . Q1: $6.6M vs $0.4M .	Q3: $9.3M vs $6.9M YoY; higher lift revenue .	Stronger JV contribution .
CapEx / New vessel program	Q2: ~ $305M milestones in 2025; maintenance $100–$120M .	2025 milestones now ~$248M (shift to 1H26); maintenance ~$130M; CCF covers ~92% of remaining obligations; deliveries 1Q27, 3Q27, 2Q28 .	Funding secure; minor timing shift .
Sourcing diversification	—	~20% of CLX/MAX cargo originates outside China (notably Vietnam; also Cambodia/Thailand/Malaysia/Philippines) .	Diversification broadening across SE Asia .

Management Commentary

“Matson’s Ocean Transportation and Logistics business segments performed well in a difficult environment marked by continued uncertainty and volatility arising from tariffs and global trade.” — Matt Cox, CEO .
“The deal includes a one-year suspension of port entry fees... We have not passed these port entry fees on to our customers.” — Matt Cox, CEO .
“We are trading at... some of the highest spreads over the market rates that we’ve ever seen... absolute freight rates are likely to come down, but in a very orderly way and very consistent with our previous seasonal pattern.” — Matt Cox, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Pricing sustainability: Management emphasized premium service and pricing discipline, with spreads over market rates near highs; seasonal rate normalization expected but no change in strategy .
Utilization/load factors: Since April, CLX/MAX have not been consistently full; Matson chose to maintain rates rather than chase volumes amid front-loaded inventory and elevated market capacity .
Port entry fees: ~$6.4M paid quarter-to-date were cash outflows; awaiting final USTR/MOT guidance on potential refunds; fees included in Q4 outlook .
Spot rate rebound: Management views recent spot moves as largely irrelevant to Matson pricing; core customer need is speed/reliability rather than index-linked pricing .
Sourcing diversification: ~20% of expedited volumes originate outside China, led by Vietnam; diversification trend expected to persist .

Estimates Context

EPS and revenue beat: Q3 2025 EPS $4.24 vs $3.25 consensus*; revenue $880.1M vs $837.4M consensus*. EBITDA outperformed consensus* as well, reflecting premium pricing and cost control .
Forward look: Management guided Q4 2025 consolidated operating income to be ~30% below Q4 2024; consensus for Q4 and early 2026 may need to reflect lower China volumes/rates, inventory caution, and inclusion of port fees in Q4 .

Note: Consensus values marked with * are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Matson’s premium expedited model continues to deliver outperformance vs consensus, supported by disciplined pricing and service reliability despite a muted peak season .
China weakness (lower rates/volumes) remains the core headwind; domestic trades and SSAT contribution help buffer earnings .
Near-term caution: Q4 OI guided ~30% below prior year, but the Oct 30 U.S.-China deal suspending port entry fees should reduce uncertainty and support stabilization into 2026 .
Cash returns remain robust (buybacks, dividend), with ample liquidity and conservative leverage; capex timing shifts reduce 2025 vessel milestone outlays without changing the ~$1B program or delivery schedule .
For trading, key catalysts are estimate revisions post-beat, management’s Q4 tone, tariff/fee implementation details, and China demand trajectory into Lunar New Year .
Watch Guam (tourism-driven softness) vs Hawaii/Alaska (steadier demand), and monitor continued origin diversification across SE Asia supporting Matson’s expedited network .
Risk skew near-term tied to China macro/trade policy; upside from faster stabilization in rates/volumes and sustained pricing premiums .

Sources: Company press release and 8‑K (including exhibits), and Q3 2025 earnings call transcript as cited above.

Matson, Inc. (MATX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary